Earnings Preview for Jan 12 – 16 by Charles Rotblut

Alcoa Inc. (AA) and Intel Corporation (INTC) could disappoint investors.

Fourth-quarter earnings season will "officially" start on Monday, Jan 12 when Alcoa Inc. (AA) releases its results after the bell.

Just 22 companies are scheduled to release results, as it will be another week before earnings season truly heats up. Included on this week's calendar are Dow components AA and Intel Corporation (INTC) as well as fellow S&P 500 members Amphenol Corporation (APH), First Horizon National Corporation (FHN), Johnson Controls, Inc. (JCI), Linear Technology Corporation (LLTC), Marshall & Ilsley Corporation (MI), PPG Industries, Inc. (PPG), The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) and Xilinx, Inc. (XLNX).

Wednesday could be a volatile day with December retail sales released in the morning and the Beige Book published in the afternoon.

* Tuesday: December Treasury deficit
* Wednesday: December retail sales, December import and export prices, November business inventories, Federal Reserve Beige Book, weekly crude inventories
* Thursday: December PPI, January Phili Fed survey, weekly initial jobless claims
* Friday: December CPI, December industrial production and capacity utilization, preliminary January University of Michigan consumer confidence

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will deliver a speech entitled "The Crisis and the Policy Response" in London on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 is above the 50-day moving average for the first time in months, though the move occurred on volume that has not been impressive. My presumption is that volume will remain average, at best, until after the inauguration.

The U.S. equity markets will be closed on Monday, Jan 19, in honor of Martin Luther King, Jr. Day.

Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises

Trends in earnings estimate revisions do not suggest a strong likelihood of any positive surprises.

Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises

Even during periods of economic growth, Alcoa Inc. (AA) often misses earnings estimates. So it is not shocking that brokerage analysts are lowering their expectations ahead of the company's fourth-quarter report. Over the past 30 days, cuts by 7 analysts have resulted in the consensus earnings estimate falling to a loss of 2 cents per share from a projected profit of 17 cents. The most accurate estimate is even more bearish and calls for a loss of 4 cents per share. As stated above, Alcoa will report on Monday, Jan 12, after the close of trading.

Last Wednesday, Intel (INTC) warned that fourth-quarter revenues would be about $8.2 billion, a 20% decrease from a year prior and below the chipmaker's previous forecast. The company did not provide an EPS figure, but 8 brokerage analysts cut their quarterly projections in response. The revisions led to a 2-cent drop in the consensus estimate, which is now at 20 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is more bearish at 14 cents per share.

Though INTC does have a history of meeting or topping expectations, its 2009 guidance could dampen enthusiasm about fourth-quarter profits not being as bad as feared. INTC is scheduled to report on Thursday, Jan 15, after the close of trading.


Charles Rotblut is the Vice President of Web Content for Zacks Investment Research and the Senior Market Analyst for Zacks.com. He oversees the editorial staff, manages the market-beating Focus List, Timely Buys and Top 10 portfolios, and plays an instrumental role in the development of new products. For more information, visit
http://www.zacks.com

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